Green opportunities for storage-battery production

China Daily reports an interesting story on Energy Storage, aka Batteries, today. (see: Green opportunities for storage-battery production)

According to the paper, China account for about 25% of global lead-acid storage batteries. These batteries are widely used in Electric Vehicles. The export growth has been a staggering 23% p.a. CEEIA estimates that annual growth is likely to continue with a rate of 15% p.a. for the next five years.

As we highlighted in our China’s 12th 5-year plan piece, the government is keen to promote green technologies and has earmarked the renewable sector as part of its Magic-7 industries.

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Liquid Assets – Media Update

We just saw CNBC’s Liquid Assets – Big Business of Water (opens CNBC video, 42:43min). Although very US centric, the overall message is pointing in the right direction. The cost of water is simply too low. As Peter Gleick puts it: “An oil tanker filled up with oil may be worth $200m – $300m. The same tanker filled with water would be worth just $400’000 – $500’000.”

Another CNBC report looks at Water stocks. Debra Coy is giving her views (opens CNBC video: 04:00min). The discussion briefly touches on water rights also. Two companies mentioned are Cadiz Inc. and Pico Holdings.

Top 10 cleantech stories of 2009

In no particular order, here are my top 10 cleantech stories of 2009. Any other interesting stories that you think should be on this list?

1. Copenhagen Accord: From Hopenhagen to Nopenhagen
The widely anticipated UN climate talks at Copenhagen in Dec 2009 ended with a whimper. After spending much time haggling about the main issues, world leaders could only come up with a kind of letter of intent. In fact, it was US President Barack Obama who brokered the final deal with China, India, South Africa and Brazil. Europe, which was left out, was apparently angered with this move. For now, the goalpost has been shifted to Mexico in 2010.

2. Global Cleantech Stimulus
Though we’re facing the toughest financial crisis yet, several governments around the world managed to announce multi-billion dollar stimulus packages for the cleantech sector, underscoring the importance of the sector to deal with climate change and energy supply issues. US, China, South Korea, Japan, EU, Germany, Australia and UK are among the biggest contributors.

3. A123 Systems IPO Soars
Lithium ion battery company A123 Systems was clearly the star of cleantech IPOs this year, with its shares soaring more than 50% on the first day of trading in Sep 2009. A123 Systems has not made any money, yet its stock price is still trading above its offering price with currently $2 billion market cap, even though Chrysler cancelled its electric vehicle plans which included A123 batteries. Doesn’t this remind you of the tech boom in the late 1990s? More IPOs are expected to come with Solyndra already filed for IPO in Dec 2009 while we’ll just have to keep guessing when Tesla Motors, Silver Spring Networks and Codexis will make their debut.

4. Khosla Ventures Raises $1.1 billion Cleantech Funds
Even as VC/PE cleantech investments slumps in 2009, Khosla Ventures raises the bar with its $1.1 billion funds raised in Sep 2009. It was the largest amount raised by a VC firm since 2007 and the largest first-time fund raised since 1999. This was also the first time Khosla Ventures has raised funds from outside investors which included the CalPERS. It was a rare feat to raise a fund of this size and Vinod Khosla has definitely proved it.

5. Cleantech Investments Shift from Solar to Energy Efficiency
Indeed 2009 proved to be tough on solar companies where declining orders, excess inventory and project financing problems were accompanied with massive layoffs. While Spain’s removal of government subsidies and the financial crisis contributed to the solar slump, China continues to provide state funding to the Chinese cleantech firms via low-interest loans from big state banks to fund their growth. It is no surprise that investment is seen shifting from capital-intensive cleantech such as solar and wind to less capital-intensive cleantech such as energy efficiency, storage, transportation and smart grid sector. Have you heard of the Jevons Paradox – the more efficient we become in our use of energy, the more we will use? Ironically, energy efficiency may lead to more energy consumption as the cost of energy resource reduces.

6. Electric Vehicles: Electric Dreams Come True
It’s no doubt that Obama’s stimulus package has jolted the US electric car industry into life. Anything from electric vehicles, fuel cells, battery technologies, hybrid vehicles to charging stations have turned into golden opportunity for investment. Even the Big Three, GM, Ford and Chrysler were pressured by the US government to make electric cars. The stakes are high here, as we look forward to reduce oil dependence. Yet this has caused another “gold” rush, i.e. rare metals which are important components in making the fuel cells and batteries and China is the main producer of rare metals. Meanwhile, expect the Japanese Toyota and Honda to continue to lead in the hybrid car sector.

7. Biofuel Flights Sizzle
With biofuels craze fizzling out this year, a good news from the industry appeared. Biofuel flights were tested successfully by 3 different airlines this year. In Jan 2009, Continental Airlines tested flight with 50% jet fuel, 47% jatropha, 3% algae in 1 engine (the first to use algae). In the same month, Japan Airlines tested flight with 50% jet fuel, 50% biofuel (of which 84% is camelina, 16% jatropha, less than 1% algae; the first to use camelina). In Nov 2009, KLM demonstrated the first passenger flight with 50% jet fuel, 50% camelina. Previously, Virgin Atlantic was the first to test flight with biofuel mix with 50% jet fuel, 20% mix of coconut and babassu oil in Feb 2008 (some people were mocking Richard Branson at that time!) while Air New Zealand tested flight in Dec 2008 with 50% jet fuel, 50% jatropha (the first to use jatropha). No doubt, we will see more of these biofuel flights realizing in the future.

8. Algae is Oil’s Best Friend
It seems like algae is the new biofuel. Exxon Mobil invested $600 million in Synthetic Genomics, a biotechnology company founded by none other than the genomics pioneer J. Craig Venter, in July 2009 to produce fuel from algae. BP, already an early investor in Synthetic Genomics, invested $10 million in Martek Biosciences in Aug 2009. Though it is applauding to see oil companies to look at alternative energy sources, Exxon Mobil’s latest $31 billion acquisition of XTO Energy, the largest natural gas producer in US, in Dec 2009 is a bet that alternative energy is not viable enough to meet US energy needs for the next few decades while hoping that the cleaner fossil fuel will reduce possible carbon tax in the future.

9. Smart Grid Gets Smarter
The smart grid has been hailed as the electricity Internet and it is such a big play that even the big IT players IBM (via its IBM Venture Capital Group) and Cisco are eyeing for a piece of it. In Obama’s stimulus plan, it calls for the creation of a smart grid and 40 million smart meters to be deployed in American homes. Smart grid may be the largest cloud (computing) and expensive but it will be lucrative for smart grid players. Silver Spring Networks, GridPoint, Trilliant, eMeter, Grid Net and SmartSynch are just some of the players that should benefit from the stimulus.

10. Water Splashes With Osmotic Power and Reverse Osmosis Desalination
In Nov 2009, Norway’s state-owned power company, Statkraft opened a prototype osmotic power plant which is the world’s first that generates energy by mixing fresh water with sea water. The idea of generating power from osmotic pressure gradients is actually an extension of reverse osmosis (RO) desalination. RO desal is used for water and wastewater purification, and such large plants are usually found in Middle East nearby power plants where they can easily get their electricity needs from oil. While the Middle Eastern plants consume oil to generate power for its desal process, Norway’s plant generates power from its desal process. I wish I could say much more for the water space but it is noteworthy that Kleiner Perkins has made its first water-related cleantech investment in APT. Hopefully we will see more VC investments in water-related cleantech next year.

Denmark leads the world in CleanTech

Using both wind and efficiency plays, Denmark leads the world in CleanTech on a GDP weighted ranking according to a recent report commissioned from the World Wildlife Fund and written by Roland Berger.  The ability to produce and sell products and services that reduce CO2 emissions is the key metric used to rank all 27 EU member states, BRIC and G7 countries.

Clean Technology recently passed pharmaceuticals for industry size, and is expected to be the third largest in the world by 2020 at (EUR 1,600 billion.) Between 2000 and 2008, wind grew at 24% and solar at 53%. It is this growth rate, and related demographic factors that form the backbone of the CleanTech investment thesis that this blog strongly supports.

Other notables: 2nd Brazil, 3rd Germany, 6th China, 10th Israel, 19th USA, 20th UK

Brightsource announces new Partnership with Bechtel

Source: Company

Source: Company

Brightsource announced that they selected Bechtel as their Engineering firm of choice for their 2010 Ivanpah Solar Electricity Generating System. The press release claims that the economic value of the Contract (and presumably the Plant itself) is some US$3bn. Only in December 2008, Brightsource announced that they contracted with Siemens (Siemens builds the largest Power Steam Turbine). The 123MW turbine is first large scale project of its kind.

Brightsource continues to impress with their execution. It appears that the Management Team is determined to prove its execution capabilities. Its Investor must be proud that this flagship project is continuuing to demonstrate momentum.

Ramco Energy: Paradigm Shift – transforming to Wind Energy Pure Play

Source: Company

Source: Company

Ramco Energy (or soon to be SeaEnergy Renewables) provided an interesting news item. Per BBC Report, Ramco plans to sell off its Oil & Gas business to focus exclusively on Wind energy. Nothing to special here but Stephen Remp (Executive Chairman) laid out the rationale: “cleantech and green-focused investment funds were reluctant to invest in the group while it retained its focus on oil and gas”.

This provides an interesting case study for many ‘traditional’ energy companies. In principal, CEOs are likely to come under more scrutiny to make a commitment either or. Although Investment Dollars clearly sit with CleanTech funds today, and this is likely to increase rather than decrease, the choice is not easy.

As I mentioned in my last post, IDC Report on Electric Utilities, today is more about long-term strategy and Organizational Change than short-term Shareholder concerns around near-term profitability. The question is are market forces agreeing with the change? I guess the future share price will tell us.

Pentair Analyst Day 2009

Last week, on 3 Sep 2009, Pentair had its Analyst Day 2009 in New York. I listened to it via webcast and I’ll highlight (in memo format) some of the points made during the presentation. You can view its presentation or listen to its webcast again (this time its presentation is available together with its webcast simultaneously. I was listening to the webcast without the presentation).

The CEO Randall J. Hogan made the following points:
1. Pentair is leader in 2 business segments
2. The Water segment is a $2bn sales business
3. The Technical Products segment is a $1bn sales business
4. 35% of total sales is international
5. Pentair Water is involved in all the water cycle from the sources to the waste water
6. Technical Products serve many verticals with wide range of products
7. Technical Products have been more cyclical than the Water biz but it’s getting better with time
8. Sales is more global and more emerging. 75% sales in US in 2005 will be 65% in 2009. Emerging markets which takes up 8% sales in 2005 now takes up 15% sales in 2009. CEO expects this market to take up 20-25% sales in near future.

Some key messages:
1. The economic situation was worse than originally anticipated
2. Pentair introduced Global Business Unit (GBU) structure a year ago which was realigned to better position Pentair for stronger growth going forward
3. Provided an innovation roadmap which was maintained and expanded
4. Outlined aggressive cost rationalization plan which was accelerated and driving Ops Excellence improvements daily via Lean
5. Cash is King, Pentair is generating lots of it and expect this to continue

The CEO continues…
1. Residential markets impacted half of its Water biz during the crisis
2. Industrials remain weak and record low, big inventory drawdown
3. Actions taken: accelerated 3-year “footprint” plan into 18 months (closed 15 out of 18 plants so far), accelerated G&A reduction plan (reduced G&A headcount by 30%)
4. However, it maintained investment in growth: R&D, sales & marketing
5. Result: Cashflow is very good, Pentair is positioned for the Stimulus. Company EPS is maintained at $1.40 for 2009 with sales forecast of $2.7bn in 2009.

Key Drivers/Key Growth Focus Areas:
1. Emerging market growth is key – continued development and investment for past 5 years, China/Southeast Asia is key
2. Developed countries invest in infrastructure – stimulus monies being deployed, positioned to win fair share of developing infrastructure
3. Sustainability & green solutions – companies that can be sustainability partners will win, leverage on green practices
4. Starting from low base-position businesses – residential/industrial/commercial record low readings, positioned for growth

CEO summarizes:
1. Growth strategies – initiatives are robust, organized to win, trends in our favor, GBU structure the right organization
2. Productivity remains key – much more to do, executed 3-year cost plan in 12-18 months, Lean and ops excellence opportunities and traction
3. Exciting innovation – future looks bright, new products doing well and more to come
4. Financial outlook – solid expectations; growth, margin and ROIC “model” appealing
5. Sustainability highlighted – internally and as a partner, launched citizenship council/report internally, partnering with organizations to transform their environment

A short summary on technology by the Technology VP Dr. Phil Rolchigo:
1. We imagined new solutions with breakthrough performance: innovative prefiltration solutions; high efficiency point-of-use RO (reverse osmosis) systems; breakthrough performance point-of-use UF purification solutions; fully integrated water treatment systems with process water and reuse; low energy, membrane technology for oil dehydration and reuse
2. Now imagine the future – high efficiency commercial and industrial RO desalination solutions; even higher efficiency softening solutions, perhaps salt-less solutions; breakthrough purification technologies for reuse and desal solutions, advanced membrance and disinfectation solutions.

Comment:
1. Listening to the webcast, it sounds positive overall as the market has reached the bottom and so they’re starting from a low base, and meanwhile, more cost cutting is ongoing.
2. One good thing is that they’re maintaining their investment in R&D and they’re in good position for the Stimulus package though they may need to share the pie with other companies. See their Stimulus White Paper.
3. They’re also looking at emerging markets as future growth as those countries improve their water infrastructure.
4. At this moment, the demand for technical products has not risen and they’re still focusing in US due to its affordability and reliability.
5. For this year, they’re trying to maintain its good cash flow, hopefully for good investments (and not to raise dividends again next year!)
6. Some of the new technologies are still in stealth mode but its 4 current technologies – ultrafiltration, reverse osmosis, membrane bioreactors and UV light disinfection – are their focus now and they’re continuously improving on it.

The time for batteries is now…

Solar and wind energy are both experiencing tremendous growth rates and their investment opportunities are well documented. While much attention and capital is given to the CleanTech sector these days, how do investors know when we have saturated the best opportunities and begun chasing riskier firms? Which parts of the CleanTech sector have room for growth, and which ones are destined for failure? One sector, batteries, appears to have a few unique characteristics within the CleanTech genre that make it one of the more promising areas for investment.

In the past two years we have seen oil go from $40 to $147 and back again. With oil still relatively cheap, consumers are nonetheless switching to more fuel efficient automobiles, including many new lines of hybrids offered by manufacturers. The average new car purchased during the recent cash for clunkers program in the US was 24.9 mpg while the car traded in averaged 15.8 mpg. Ignoring the clunker program, in June 2009 hybrids were 3.05% of the new car market share, up year over year 2008 even when gas was over $4/gallon. Electric vehicles (EVs) are now being offered, and up to a dozen new lines will be introduced to the market in the next 5 years. This past spring, President Obama further increased CAFE standards for US automobiles up to a whopping 35 mpg- a standard that virtually guarantees a robust hybrid market to satisfy the increased efficiency needs.

And as for oil prices, a factor which may be the largest single driver of hybrid sales, a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) flagship report described the majority of the world’s top 800 oil fields have passed their peak production and are declining at a rate twice as fast as previously believed. The IEA estimates that by 2010 oil companies will have to commit to projects producing almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia if the world is to avoid a supply crunch by the middle of the next decade. It further adds, “Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable.” If this IEA report is even partially correct we can expect an eventual surge in oil prices, and a consequent spike in demand for transportation based on electrons, not fossil fuels.

As noted, consumers are choosing more fuel efficient transportation even in a cheaper oil environment. They are likely doing this for reasons including: economic, environmental and geopolitical issues. According to a study from Thomas Weisel Partners and using Toyota, Honda and Ford hybrids- the payback periods for the hybrids without tax benefits ranged from 3.4 to 7.0 years. Clearly, driving habits, fuel prices and type of hybrid affect this equation significantly, but it is clear with existing vehicles that the premium for batteries is not too high to eliminate the economic benefit with today’s pricing assumptions for most consumers.

The problem for the battery sector right now is not competition, but manufacturing capacity. OEMs are hesitant to sign long term supply agreements with battery companies that do not have the capability to produce- while battery suppliers are attempting to raise cap-ex but need manufacturing capacity to prove they can produce revenues. In early August, the US administration proved their support to help overcome this chicken and egg issue by granting over $2B in funding to various battery companies like Ener1, A123 Systems and Johnson Controls Inc.

Potential Weaknesses:

  • Long term low oil prices
  • Technological Issues (little improvement to cost or capacity)
  • Supply Concerns (Raw materials and manufacturing capacity)
  • Technological competition ( Improved NG cars, ultra capacitors, diesels or fuel cells)

Potential Strengths:

  • Larger market potential in consumer electronics, military applications & utility grid peak shaving
  • Improving technology curve to help costs and increase capacity
  • Growing consumer/govt. demand to minimize fossil fuel use
  • Potential, future surges in oil prices

While transportation is the key to battery sector growth, commercial electronics, military applications and utility applications will only add to this very large market potential. The opportunities for companies vary as widely as do the battery chemistries, satisfying the unique characteristics of the automobiles and products that demand this product. The battery sector will have several large winners, and the race is just now beginning.

UPDATED (Nov. 18): See this report, published by the Electrification Coalition, which makes a very similar argument presented in a well organized PDF. The coalition is also blogged about by my colleague Sascha here.

SOURCES:

1)       http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2009/08/cash-for-clunkers_winds_up_cos.html?hpid=topnews

2)       http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/07/while-most-of-car-market-tanks-hybrid-sales-gain-for-sixth-consecutive-month.html

3)       http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca2b5254-ab6a-11dd-b9e1-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

4)       Thomas Weisel Report, Race for the Electric Car, Spring 2009

DISCLOSURE: Author owns shares of Ener1

Israel – the Silicon Valley of the water industry?

There is an article in the November 2007 issue of Global Water Intelligence (you may need subscription) about Israel gearing up to be the “Silicon Valley” of the water industry. Here’s the list of Israel’s water technology VC investors, albeit an old list back in 2007:

Israelwatertechnology

(In text: Arison Water Initiative, Aqua Agro Fund, IDB Holdings (Elron), BHCO Group, Israel Cleantech Ventures, Terra Venture Partners, Gemini Israel, Greylock Partners, Aurum Ventures, L Capital, Ashkelon Incubator, Kinrot Incubator, LN Incubator)

Also, the Watec conference in Tel Aviv list top 10 technologies 2007 (you might discover I just covered Bio Pure Technology in my previous blog but I can’t guarantee the existence of others after the financial crisis!):
israel water technology

(In text: Atlantium, Blue I Water Technologies, AqWise, Bio Pure Technology, Pervasiv, CheckLight, Toxsorb, TreaTec21 Industries, En Gibton, Aquilyzer)