Top 10 cleantech stories of 2009

In no particular order, here are my top 10 cleantech stories of 2009. Any other interesting stories that you think should be on this list?

1. Copenhagen Accord: From Hopenhagen to Nopenhagen
The widely anticipated UN climate talks at Copenhagen in Dec 2009 ended with a whimper. After spending much time haggling about the main issues, world leaders could only come up with a kind of letter of intent. In fact, it was US President Barack Obama who brokered the final deal with China, India, South Africa and Brazil. Europe, which was left out, was apparently angered with this move. For now, the goalpost has been shifted to Mexico in 2010.

2. Global Cleantech Stimulus
Though we’re facing the toughest financial crisis yet, several governments around the world managed to announce multi-billion dollar stimulus packages for the cleantech sector, underscoring the importance of the sector to deal with climate change and energy supply issues. US, China, South Korea, Japan, EU, Germany, Australia and UK are among the biggest contributors.

3. A123 Systems IPO Soars
Lithium ion battery company A123 Systems was clearly the star of cleantech IPOs this year, with its shares soaring more than 50% on the first day of trading in Sep 2009. A123 Systems has not made any money, yet its stock price is still trading above its offering price with currently $2 billion market cap, even though Chrysler cancelled its electric vehicle plans which included A123 batteries. Doesn’t this remind you of the tech boom in the late 1990s? More IPOs are expected to come with Solyndra already filed for IPO in Dec 2009 while we’ll just have to keep guessing when Tesla Motors, Silver Spring Networks and Codexis will make their debut.

4. Khosla Ventures Raises $1.1 billion Cleantech Funds
Even as VC/PE cleantech investments slumps in 2009, Khosla Ventures raises the bar with its $1.1 billion funds raised in Sep 2009. It was the largest amount raised by a VC firm since 2007 and the largest first-time fund raised since 1999. This was also the first time Khosla Ventures has raised funds from outside investors which included the CalPERS. It was a rare feat to raise a fund of this size and Vinod Khosla has definitely proved it.

5. Cleantech Investments Shift from Solar to Energy Efficiency
Indeed 2009 proved to be tough on solar companies where declining orders, excess inventory and project financing problems were accompanied with massive layoffs. While Spain’s removal of government subsidies and the financial crisis contributed to the solar slump, China continues to provide state funding to the Chinese cleantech firms via low-interest loans from big state banks to fund their growth. It is no surprise that investment is seen shifting from capital-intensive cleantech such as solar and wind to less capital-intensive cleantech such as energy efficiency, storage, transportation and smart grid sector. Have you heard of the Jevons Paradox – the more efficient we become in our use of energy, the more we will use? Ironically, energy efficiency may lead to more energy consumption as the cost of energy resource reduces.

6. Electric Vehicles: Electric Dreams Come True
It’s no doubt that Obama’s stimulus package has jolted the US electric car industry into life. Anything from electric vehicles, fuel cells, battery technologies, hybrid vehicles to charging stations have turned into golden opportunity for investment. Even the Big Three, GM, Ford and Chrysler were pressured by the US government to make electric cars. The stakes are high here, as we look forward to reduce oil dependence. Yet this has caused another “gold” rush, i.e. rare metals which are important components in making the fuel cells and batteries and China is the main producer of rare metals. Meanwhile, expect the Japanese Toyota and Honda to continue to lead in the hybrid car sector.

7. Biofuel Flights Sizzle
With biofuels craze fizzling out this year, a good news from the industry appeared. Biofuel flights were tested successfully by 3 different airlines this year. In Jan 2009, Continental Airlines tested flight with 50% jet fuel, 47% jatropha, 3% algae in 1 engine (the first to use algae). In the same month, Japan Airlines tested flight with 50% jet fuel, 50% biofuel (of which 84% is camelina, 16% jatropha, less than 1% algae; the first to use camelina). In Nov 2009, KLM demonstrated the first passenger flight with 50% jet fuel, 50% camelina. Previously, Virgin Atlantic was the first to test flight with biofuel mix with 50% jet fuel, 20% mix of coconut and babassu oil in Feb 2008 (some people were mocking Richard Branson at that time!) while Air New Zealand tested flight in Dec 2008 with 50% jet fuel, 50% jatropha (the first to use jatropha). No doubt, we will see more of these biofuel flights realizing in the future.

8. Algae is Oil’s Best Friend
It seems like algae is the new biofuel. Exxon Mobil invested $600 million in Synthetic Genomics, a biotechnology company founded by none other than the genomics pioneer J. Craig Venter, in July 2009 to produce fuel from algae. BP, already an early investor in Synthetic Genomics, invested $10 million in Martek Biosciences in Aug 2009. Though it is applauding to see oil companies to look at alternative energy sources, Exxon Mobil’s latest $31 billion acquisition of XTO Energy, the largest natural gas producer in US, in Dec 2009 is a bet that alternative energy is not viable enough to meet US energy needs for the next few decades while hoping that the cleaner fossil fuel will reduce possible carbon tax in the future.

9. Smart Grid Gets Smarter
The smart grid has been hailed as the electricity Internet and it is such a big play that even the big IT players IBM (via its IBM Venture Capital Group) and Cisco are eyeing for a piece of it. In Obama’s stimulus plan, it calls for the creation of a smart grid and 40 million smart meters to be deployed in American homes. Smart grid may be the largest cloud (computing) and expensive but it will be lucrative for smart grid players. Silver Spring Networks, GridPoint, Trilliant, eMeter, Grid Net and SmartSynch are just some of the players that should benefit from the stimulus.

10. Water Splashes With Osmotic Power and Reverse Osmosis Desalination
In Nov 2009, Norway’s state-owned power company, Statkraft opened a prototype osmotic power plant which is the world’s first that generates energy by mixing fresh water with sea water. The idea of generating power from osmotic pressure gradients is actually an extension of reverse osmosis (RO) desalination. RO desal is used for water and wastewater purification, and such large plants are usually found in Middle East nearby power plants where they can easily get their electricity needs from oil. While the Middle Eastern plants consume oil to generate power for its desal process, Norway’s plant generates power from its desal process. I wish I could say much more for the water space but it is noteworthy that Kleiner Perkins has made its first water-related cleantech investment in APT. Hopefully we will see more VC investments in water-related cleantech next year.

What does $1.5 billion buy?

How much would you value a developing technology company with a product you have never seen nor ever tested? $1.5 billion dollars??

That’s what an implied valuation of the company EEStor equates to using their minority shareholder Zenn Motors for the valuation.  Zenn Motors, a Toronto based EV firm, owns 10.7% of EEStor and after recently ceasing operations to produce an electric vehicle seems to be focusing their efforts now solely on supplying EV drive-trains based on EEStor ultra-capacitor batteries. Using the market cap of Zenn at about $169 million, this implies a $1.579 billion valuation of EEStor while giving little value to the other components of Zenn Motors. Zenn is the only publicly available equity for EEStor while Kleiner Perkins and other, unnamed private parties played a key role in the firm’s early development.

Zenn Motor Vehicle

Zenn Motor Vehicle

EEStor is an upstart firm in Austin, USA developing an ultra-capacitor for transportation, military and grid storage applications. “Their (EEStor) unique technology capacitor-based battery, in theory, is far more energy dense and low weight than lithium ion, is cheap to produce out of unlimited natural resources, suffers no degradation, and can be recharged in minutes.” “EEStor says its energy storage technology for vehicles can provide 10 times the energy of lead-acid batteries at one-tenth the weight and half the price, and move a car 400 kilometers after a five-minute charge.”  The company is a legend of sorts with two entire websites dedicated by fans of the company to speculate about company developments(http://theeestory.com/, http://bariumtitanate.blogspot.com/).

Reducing the cost of energy storage, reducing charge times and switching to domestic materials would have a significant effect on the economics of hybrids, electric vehicles, and grid based energy storage used in cooperation with wind energy. It is not often products are enticing firms to more than double their performance and halve their costs. As much as these claims would revolutionize an entire industry or two, they have never been proven nor demonstrated to the public.

Similarly to EEStor, IBM, is currently working on a project called “Battery 500” using lithium air technology. This is not an ultra-capacitor but an advanced variation of lithium batteries with cathodes that use oxygen from the atmosphere (instead of phosphate or manganese) which enable these batteries to have a charge density ten times as dense as the best current standard Lithium Ion technology. Electric vehicles would be able to travel 500 miles on a single charge with a battery that was not dependent on rare Earth metals. However, like EEStor, this project is under works, and may or may not be an eventual success. “IBM estimates that it will take two years to determine if the goals of The Battery 500 Project can be met with lithium-air battery technology.”

The “what if” technologies of EEStor and IBM are vastly superior in performance and cost to the current Lithium Ion technologies being offered by Valence Technologies, LG Chem, A123 Systems and Ener1. However, what these lithium ion producers have that the two emerging technologies don’t are supply agreements, manufacturing and supply infrastructure and a history to prove the technology actually works. Oh, and revenues. (Yes, IBM sells a few other products.)

So, why is EEStor valued at $1.5 billion? Is it a validation of the importance of the energy storage sector? Do some people know that the ultra capacitors actually work? Or is this the result of hype built upon by a community of investors anxious for a technological breakthrough? While few people will doubt the importance and the expected growth of the energy storage sector, watching which particular firms emerge as the winners or losers will certainly be exciting.

1) http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1035989_did-eestor-certify-its-eesu-in-september

2) http://earth2tech.com/2009/01/08/john-doerr-mentions-kleiners-stealthy-lithium-ion-battery-startup/

3) http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/10/eestor/

4) http://taintedgreen.com/batteries/eestor-watch-out-ibm-is-building-a-next-gen-battery-too/000351

5) http://www.smartertechnology.com/c/a/Technology-For-Change/Battery-500-Project-Charged-Up-over-AllElectric-Cars/

Darryl Siry, former Chief Marketing Officer for electric car maker Tesla originally implied this EEStor valuation, shown on source #3, implying that Zenn is worth nothing if EEStor is unsuccessful. Author owns shares of Ener1.

Utility SCE wants A123 Systems to build largest grid storage battery

Southern California Edison (SCE) is seeking a US grant to store wind power in the largest-ever grid storage battery to be built by A123 Systems, Reuters reported on 26 Aug 2009.

Utility SCE is requesting $65 million in grants from the US DOE for the pilot storage project ($25 million for this project) and for another project involving integration of home energy management systems into the electric grid. SCE is seeking the money from the DOE’s $615 million fund for smart grid-related pilot projects. Smart grid technology measures and modifies power usage in homes and businesses, improving grid reliability.

Wind and solar are intermittent energy sources and storing the power at economically viable rate is seen as crucial to making alternative energy truly mainstream. Hence, SCE wants privately-held A123 Systems to assemble a 32-MW-hour utility-scale battery that would be made up of smaller batteries in an 8,000-square-foot building at an existing substation in the Tehachapi region in California.

The project is expected to have about 4,500MW of wind power by 2015 and needs to find a way to store the power. The battery would stabilize the flow of wind power from the mountains to the utility’s load centers to the west and south and that could free up about 300MW of wind power that might otherwise be undeliverable if the utility had transmission line problems in the region.

For the second pilot project on smart grid integration, SCE is seeking $40 million from the DOE and will be working with GE, SunPower Corp and Boeing Co. IBM and Cisco may also play a part in the project.

Separately, another California utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Co, is seeking $25 million from the DOE’s smart grid fund for a compressed air energy storage project, which aims to pump compressed air into an underground reservoir, using mainly wind energy produced during non-peak hours. The air would be released to generate electricity during periods of peak demand.

Batteries, whether the more expensive lithium ion or cheaper sodium sulfur and flow batteries, are still far more expensive than compressed air energy storage (CAES). According to the Electric Power Reserach Institute, it’s among the cheapest, besides pumping water uphill and letting it flow to spin a turbine – another technology limited by the availability of water and reservoirs to hold it. PG&E’s Helms Pumped Storage Facility is one such “pumped hydro” storage project.

Still, backers of grid batteries – as well as systems like flywheels and fuel cells – say they could lower prices as more systems get deployed.

Sources:
Utility wants to deploy largest grid battery ever
SoCal Edison Wants A123’s Biggest Grid Battery Ever
PG&E Wants DOE Dollars for Underground Air Energy Storage